My grandparents emailed me an article in The Atlantic this morning: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/12/why-bitcoin-will-never-be-a-currency-in-2-charts/282364/
It's another attempt to demonstrate that bitcoin = deflation = fail.
Here's my response to them...
Hey Grandparents,
This is what's known as the "deflationary spiral" argument, and has been hurled at Bitcoin advocates since Bitcoin's inception. The argument is that when people expect their money to be worth more tomorrow, they won't spend it today. On the surface, it makes sense. In reality, it's at best entirely exaggerated, and at worst a complete fallacy.
The deflationary spiral argument has been used by inflationistas (people who believe in endless money printing to achieve prosperity) to justify their horrible central planning and monetary debasement. It is the main argument economists use to denounce gold as money (because gold isn't produced at the same rate as economic growth, thus meaning the value of gold may appreciate relative to goods - similar to Bitcoin). Of course, the fact that 19th century America was on a gold standard and saw its strongest period of wealth creation and economic growth ever hasn't seemed to bother gold's detractors.
Fortunately, now that Bitcoin exists, and exhibits not just deflationary tendencies but MASSIVE deflationary tendencies (it's up 10,000% this year, etc), we have an amazing real world laboratory to see if the deflationary spiral truly is as terrible as alleged.
From what I've seen in Bitcoinland, we can debunk it as a myth. People absolutely spend, even when they think the money will be worth more tomorrow. They may spend less... but that is not a bad thing. It means they spend only on the things they really want, instead of rampant consumption. It makes buyers think twice before buying. This is wise and prudent. It encourages saving, and discourages consumption. Indeed in my own experience, I buy things with Bitcoin all the time... and I KNOW it will be worth more in the future. Am I a fool? Or do I merely realize that money is not wealth - that its only value is in exchanging for real wealth. I need to eat. I need a home. I need a car and clothes and some entertainment. These things are wealth, and so I trade bitcoins for them. I'm just more prudent in how I do it.
Detractors would claim that when people are prudent with their own finances, that this is bad for the economy. I believe the opposite - when people are imprudent with finances, that is when the economy suffers. Of course, imprudence means exaggerated spending today, which boosts GDP figures (because GDP is just a measure of spending). This seems to have tricked most modern economists into thinking that consumption is the cause of economic growth. I disagree. Consumption doesn't drive an economy - it is the result of the economy. Consumption is the reward for production and savings.
Besides... if the deflationary spiral was actually a dire runaway phenomenon, then are the detractors saying that Bitcoin will rise in price forever? If so, why aren't they buying some? And if they aren't sure that it will rise forever, then this defeats their argument, because once it is no longer rising, people would be happy to spend it, thus correcting the deflation problem. Examined carefully, one should realize that to the extent the deflationary spiral exists, it is a self-correcting phenomenon (as are most pricing issues in an open market).
And for a final anecdotal nail in the coffin... last year on Bitcoin Black Friday, BitPay (the largest merchant processor for Bitcoin payments) processed 99 orders globally. This year on Bitcoin Black Friday, despite the fact that Bitcoin rose from $13 to $1000, BitPay processed 6,296 orders globally. I have not seen evidence that "deflation" is hampering growth... in fact, quite the opposite.
-Erik
BitPay article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2013/12/02/black-friday-set-a-record-for-bitcoin-commerce-bitpay-says/
Submitted December 16, 2013 at 03:04PM by evoorhees
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